Crusaders FC vs Larne: model vs market
| Source | Crusaders FC | Draw | Larne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Market | 13% | 19% | 68% |
| Published | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| Edge | +13% | +6% | -19% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.37, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Crusaders FC vs Larne odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Larne, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders FC | 7.05 | 7.00 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 4.80 | -0.20 |
| Larne | 1.33 | 1.32 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Crusaders FC and Larne expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.19
- Attack rating (Crusaders FC / Larne)
- 1.05 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Crusaders FC / Larne)
- 1.16 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Crusaders FC vs Larne score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Crusaders FC goals. Columns: Larne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Crusaders FC vs Larne goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Crusaders FC vs Larne
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crusaders FC | 16% | 6.17 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.94 | |
| Larne | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Crusaders FC or draw) | 36% | 2.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Larne) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Larne win by 2+ | 28% | 3.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Crusaders FC and Larne recent form
Crusaders FC
2W 0D 4L
Larne
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Crusaders FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Larne away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Crusaders FC at home only, Larne away only.
Crusaders FC vs Larne head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Crusaders FC 0 · draws 0 · Larne 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Crusaders FC | 2-4 | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-12-20 | Crusaders FC | 0-1 | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-09-16 | Larne | 4-0 | Crusaders FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
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