Limavady United vs Ballymena United: model vs market
| Source | Limavady United | Draw | Ballymena United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 30% | 42% |
| Market | 27% | 25% | 47% |
| Published | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Edge | +1% | +4% | -6% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Limavady United vs Ballymena United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ballymena United, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limavady United | 3.27 | 3.30 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.60 | -0.10 |
| Ballymena United | 1.95 | 1.91 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Limavady United and Ballymena United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.44
- Attack rating (Limavady United / Ballymena United)
- 0.78 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Limavady United / Ballymena United)
- 1.03 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Limavady United vs Ballymena United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Limavady United goals. Columns: Ballymena United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Limavady United vs Ballymena United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Limavady United vs Ballymena United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Limavady United | 28% | 3.60 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Ballymena United | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| No | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Limavady United or draw) | 54% | 1.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Ballymena United) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ballymena United win by 2+ | 20% | 4.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Limavady United and Ballymena United recent form
Limavady United
3W 0D 3L
Ballymena United
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Limavady United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Ballymena United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Limavady United at home only, Ballymena United away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Portadown vs Glentoran — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Linfield vs Bangor — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Coleraine FC vs Cliftonville FC 2026-10-10
- Crusaders FC v Larne — match page 2026-10-10
- Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers 2026-10-10