Coleraine FC vs Cliftonville FC: model vs market
| Source | Coleraine FC | Draw | Cliftonville FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Market | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Published | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Edge | -6% | +2% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Coleraine FC vs Cliftonville FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Coleraine FC, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coleraine FC | 1.36 | 1.36 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.75 | 4.65 | -0.10 |
| Cliftonville FC | 7.00 | 7.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Coleraine FC / Cliftonville FC)
- 1.43 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Coleraine FC / Cliftonville FC)
- 0.99 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Coleraine FC vs Cliftonville FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Coleraine FC goals. Columns: Cliftonville FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Coleraine FC vs Cliftonville FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Coleraine FC vs Cliftonville FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coleraine FC | 66% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Cliftonville FC | 14% | 7.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Coleraine FC or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Cliftonville FC) | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Coleraine FC win by 2+ | 39% | 2.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC recent form
Coleraine FC
5W 0D 1L
Cliftonville FC
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Coleraine FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Cliftonville FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Coleraine FC at home only, Cliftonville FC away only.
Coleraine FC vs Cliftonville FC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Coleraine FC 2 · draws 1 · Cliftonville FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Coleraine FC | 6-2 | Cliftonville FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-03-14 | Coleraine FC | 1-0 | Cliftonville FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-11-22 | Cliftonville FC | 1-0 | Coleraine FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-08-16 | Cliftonville FC | 0-0 | Coleraine FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
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