Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers: model vs market
| Source | Dungannon Swifts | Draw | Carrick Rangers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 27% | 45% |
| Market | 41% | 25% | 33% |
| Published | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Edge | -12% | +1% | +11% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dungannon Swifts, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dungannon Swifts | 2.29 | 2.22 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Carrick Rangers | 2.73 | 2.74 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Dungannon Swifts / Carrick Rangers)
- 0.73 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Dungannon Swifts / Carrick Rangers)
- 1.09 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dungannon Swifts goals. Columns: Carrick Rangers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dungannon Swifts | 38% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Carrick Rangers | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dungannon Swifts or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Carrick Rangers) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dungannon Swifts win by 2+ | 13% | 7.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers recent form
Dungannon Swifts
2W 1D 3L
Carrick Rangers
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dungannon Swifts at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Carrick Rangers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dungannon Swifts at home only, Carrick Rangers away only.
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Dungannon Swifts 1 · draws 1 · Carrick Rangers 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Dungannon Swifts | 3-1 | Carrick Rangers | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-01-24 | Carrick Rangers | 5-1 | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-12-13 | Carrick Rangers | 3-3 | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-08-23 | Dungannon Swifts | 0-2 | Carrick Rangers | Northern Ireland Premiership |
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