Atletico Grau vs ADT preview
Atletico Grau has a 66% chance to win against ADT, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 14%. The expected goals show Atletico Grau at 1.90 and ADT at 0.64, indicating a solid advantage for the home side. However, both teams to score sits at 41%, suggesting that ADT could find the net, which would impact the predicted outcome.
Atletico Grau's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while ADT has struggled with only 1 win in their last 6. The head-to-head record shows Atletico Grau winning 1 of the last 3 encounters, while ADT has won 2. This could mean a tighter contest than the probabilities suggest, making the match unpredictable despite the statistical edge for Atletico Grau.
Atletico Grau vs ADT: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Grau | Draw | ADT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 23% | 11% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 66% | 23% | 11% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Atletico Grau and ADT expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Atletico Grau / ADT)
- 0.93 / 0.67
- Defence rating (Atletico Grau / ADT)
- 0.91 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Grau vs ADT score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Grau goals. Columns: ADT goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Grau vs ADT goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Grau vs ADT
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Grau | 66% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.39 | |
| ADT | 11% | 9.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.42 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Grau or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or ADT) | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Grau win by 2+ | 41% | 2.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Atletico Grau and ADT recent form
Atletico Grau
3W 1D 2L
ADT
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Grau at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 0.64
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
ADT away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-9
- Win rate
- 7%
- Goals for / match
- 0.79
- Goals against / match
- 1.93
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Grau at home only, ADT away only.
Atletico Grau vs ADT head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Atletico Grau 1 · draws 0 · ADT 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | ADT | 1-0 | Atletico Grau | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-08-31 | Atletico Grau | 2-0 | ADT | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-02-15 | ADT | 4-3 | Atletico Grau | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Atletico Grau, previous: Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau: odds and pick
- ADT, previous: Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs ADT prediction