Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau preview
In the Peru Primera División match between Alianza Lima and Atletico Grau, Alianza Lima has a 54% chance to win, while Atletico Grau sits at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% probability. Alianza Lima's expected goals are 1.50, compared to Atletico Grau's 0.73, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, the match could deviate from these predictions. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is only 38%, and both teams to score stands at 41%. Recent form shows Alianza Lima with mixed results, while Atletico Grau has won 3 of their last 5 matches, suggesting they could pose a challenge despite the statistics.
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau: model vs market
| Source | Alianza Lima | Draw | Atletico Grau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 28% | 17% |
| Market | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Published | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| Edge | -16% | +9% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.74.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alianza Lima, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 1.30 | 1.30 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.75 | 4.88 | +0.12 |
| Atletico Grau | 8.55 | 9.10 | +0.55 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alianza Lima and Atletico Grau expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.28
- Attack rating (Alianza Lima / Atletico Grau)
- 1.05 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Alianza Lima / Atletico Grau)
- 0.76 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alianza Lima goals. Columns: Atletico Grau goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Lima | 67% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Atletico Grau | 12% | 8.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.36 |
| No | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alianza Lima or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Grau) | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Lima win by 2+ | 30% | 3.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alianza Lima and Atletico Grau recent form
Alianza Lima
2W 2D 2L
Atletico Grau
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alianza Lima at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-1-2
- Win rate
- 79%
- Goals for / match
- 2.21
- Goals against / match
- 0.64
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 17 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Atletico Grau away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-9
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza Lima at home only, Atletico Grau away only.
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Alianza Lima 6 · draws 2 · Atletico Grau 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Atletico Grau | 0-1 | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-10-02 | Alianza Lima | 2-1 | Atletico Grau | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-05-10 | Atletico Grau | 1-1 | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División |
| 2024-09-18 | Atletico Grau | 1-0 | Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| 2024-04-15 | Alianza Lima | 2-0 | Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| 2023-06-24 | Alianza Lima | 2-0 | Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| 2023-03-26 | Atletico Grau | 1-2 | Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| 2022-07-10 | Atletico Grau | 1-2 | Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| 2022-02-05 | Alianza Lima | 1-1 | Atletico Grau | Primera División |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
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- Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs ADT — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Boys 2026-10-17
- FBC Melgar v Deportivo Garcilaso — match page 2026-10-17
- Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- FC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua — match page 2026-10-18
- Alianza Atletico vs Universitario 2026-10-18
- Cienciano v UTC Cajamarca — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Alianza Lima, previous: Cusco v Alianza Lima analysis
- Atletico Grau, previous: Atletico Grau – Club Deportivo Los Chankas, 2026-10-08
- Atletico Grau, next: Atletico Grau vs ADT prediction