Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca preview
Cienciano faces UTC Cajamarca with a 74% probability of winning, while UTC Cajamarca has just a 9% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, as indicated by our model, which also shows a 71% chance for Over 2.5 goals. Cienciano's expected goals stand at 2.87, compared to UTC Cajamarca's 0.83.
Cienciano's recent form includes three wins and two losses, while UTC Cajamarca is on a six-match losing streak. This disparity in form could lead to a straightforward victory for Cienciano. However, if UTC Cajamarca manages to improve its performance, it could disrupt expectations for both teams to score.
Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca: model vs market
| Source | Cienciano | Draw | UTC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Market | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Published | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.72 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cienciano below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.29, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cienciano, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cienciano | 1.25 | 1.25 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.38 | +0.38 |
| UTC Cajamarca | 9.00 | 9.50 | +0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cienciano and UTC Cajamarca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.60
- Attack rating (Cienciano / UTC Cajamarca)
- 1.14 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Cienciano / UTC Cajamarca)
- 1.02 / 1.47
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cienciano goals. Columns: UTC Cajamarca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cienciano | 74% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.97 | |
| UTC Cajamarca | 9% | 10.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.80 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cienciano or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or UTC Cajamarca) | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cienciano win by 2+ | 55% | 1.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cienciano and UTC Cajamarca recent form
Cienciano
3W 1D 2L
UTC Cajamarca
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cienciano at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-3
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
UTC Cajamarca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-10
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 2.29
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 14
- They have won 4 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Cienciano at home only, UTC Cajamarca away only.
Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Cienciano 2 · draws 1 · UTC Cajamarca 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | UTC Cajamarca | 2-2 | Cienciano | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-10-13 | UTC Cajamarca | 0-2 | Cienciano | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-05-24 | Cienciano | 6-1 | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
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- Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs ADT — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Boys 2026-10-17
- FBC Melgar v Deportivo Garcilaso — match page 2026-10-17
- Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau 2026-10-18
- Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- FC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua — match page 2026-10-18
- Alianza Atletico vs Universitario 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Cienciano, previous: UCV Moquegua – Cienciano, 2026-10-08
- UTC Cajamarca, previous: UTC Cajamarca – Sporting Cristal, 2026-10-11
- UTC Cajamarca, next: UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar: odds and pick