FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso preview
FBC Melgar faces Deportivo Garcilaso with 38% chances for Melgar to win and 31% for both a draw and a Garcilaso victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring 11% of the time according to our model. FBC Melgar's expected goals are 1.18, while Deportivo Garcilaso's are slightly lower at 1.05.
Both teams to score has a probability of 46%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 39%. Recent form shows FBC Melgar with D-D-W-W-L-D, while Deportivo Garcilaso has L-W-L-W-W-W. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso: model vs market
| Source | FBC Melgar | Draw | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 31% | 31% |
| Market | 68% | 20% | 13% |
| Published | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Edge | -30% | +12% | +18% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FBC Melgar, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 1.62 | 1.36 | -0.26 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 4.70 | +0.90 |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 4.95 | 7.33 | +2.38 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FBC Melgar and Deportivo Garcilaso expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.23
- Attack rating (FBC Melgar / Deportivo Garcilaso)
- 1.19 / 1.23
- Defence rating (FBC Melgar / Deportivo Garcilaso)
- 0.81 / 0.61
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FBC Melgar goals. Columns: Deportivo Garcilaso goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FBC Melgar | 60% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 17% | 5.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FBC Melgar or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Garcilaso) | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | FBC Melgar win by 2+ | 17% | 6.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FBC Melgar and Deportivo Garcilaso recent form
FBC Melgar
2W 3D 1L
Deportivo Garcilaso
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FBC Melgar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-3
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Garcilaso away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-6
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 0.46
- Goals against / match
- 0.85
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 13
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FBC Melgar at home only, Deportivo Garcilaso away only.
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: FBC Melgar 1 · draws 3 · Deportivo Garcilaso 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 1-0 | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-09-19 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 1-1 | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-04-18 | FBC Melgar | 1-2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División |
| 2024-11-03 | FBC Melgar | 1-1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| 2024-05-25 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 1-3 | FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| 2023-07-01 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 2-2 | FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| 2023-05-15 | FBC Melgar | 2-4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
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- Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs ADT — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Boys 2026-10-17
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- Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- FC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua — match page 2026-10-18
- Alianza Atletico vs Universitario 2026-10-18
- Cienciano v UTC Cajamarca — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- FBC Melgar, previous: Universitario v FBC Melgar analysis
- FBC Melgar, next: UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar: odds and pick
- Deportivo Garcilaso, previous: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo prediction