Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos preview
In the Peru Primera División fixture between Sporting Cristal and Comerciantes Unidos, the 1X2 probabilities show Sporting Cristal at 72%, with a likely scoreline of 2-0 at 12%. Sporting Cristal has a strong expected goals figure of 2.28, compared to Comerciantes Unidos' 0.81, indicating a significant attacking advantage.
However, the prediction could be challenged if Comerciantes Unidos improves their recent form, which includes 1 win in their last 5 matches. Additionally, the 51% chance for both teams to score suggests that while Sporting Cristal is favored, there is a possibility for Comerciantes Unidos to find the net.
Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos: model vs market
| Source | Sporting Cristal | Draw | Comerciantes Unidos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| Market | 74% | 17% | 10% |
| Published | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Edge | -4% | +3% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.28, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sporting Cristal, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 1.27 | 1.25 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 5.22 | 5.53 | +0.30 |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 9.75 | 9.45 | -0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sporting Cristal and Comerciantes Unidos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (Sporting Cristal / Comerciantes Unidos)
- 1.25 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Sporting Cristal / Comerciantes Unidos)
- 0.78 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sporting Cristal goals. Columns: Comerciantes Unidos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Cristal | 73% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.77 | |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 10% | 9.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sporting Cristal or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or Comerciantes Unidos) | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Cristal win by 2+ | 47% | 2.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sporting Cristal and Comerciantes Unidos recent form
Sporting Cristal
4W 0D 2L
Comerciantes Unidos
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sporting Cristal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-2
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 2.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Comerciantes Unidos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-8
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.36
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 14
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting Cristal at home only, Comerciantes Unidos away only.
Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sporting Cristal 6 · draws 2 · Comerciantes Unidos 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1-0 | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-11-01 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1-4 | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-06-29 | Sporting Cristal | 2-0 | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División |
| 2024-11-03 | Sporting Cristal | 3-0 | Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| 2024-05-25 | Comerciantes Unidos | 0-1 | Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| 2018-09-30 | Sporting Cristal | 0-2 | Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| 2018-06-09 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1-1 | Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| 2018-04-11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1-3 | Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| 2018-02-25 | Sporting Cristal | 3-0 | Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| 2017-09-10 | Sporting Cristal | 2-2 | Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
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- Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs ADT — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Boys 2026-10-17
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- Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau 2026-10-18
- FC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua — match page 2026-10-18
- Alianza Atletico vs Universitario 2026-10-18
- Cienciano v UTC Cajamarca — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Sporting Cristal, previous: UTC Cajamarca – Sporting Cristal, 2026-10-11
- Comerciantes Unidos, previous: Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College prediction