FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua preview
In the fixture between FC Cajamarca and UCV Moquegua, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Cajamarca at 59% to win, while UCV Moquegua sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 12% chance of occurring. FC Cajamarca has an expected goals figure of 2.32, compared to UCV Moquegua's 0.78, indicating a strong offensive advantage.
However, recent form could affect the outcome. FC Cajamarca has recorded a mixed bag of results with D-L-W-L-W-L, while UCV Moquegua has struggled, losing 5 of their last 6 matches. Despite FC Cajamarca's higher probability of winning, the possibility of a draw or an unexpected performance from UCV Moquegua could lead to different results. Over 2.5 goals has a 60% likelihood, while both teams to score sits at 50%.
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua: model vs market
| Source | FC Cajamarca | Draw | UCV Moquegua |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Market | 55% | 24% | 20% |
| Published | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Edge | +16% | -5% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Cajamarca below the model: +15.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Cajamarca, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cajamarca | 1.69 | 1.67 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.82 | +0.07 |
| UCV Moquegua | 4.33 | 4.53 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Cajamarca and UCV Moquegua expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.11
- Attack rating (FC Cajamarca / UCV Moquegua)
- 1.13 / 0.56
- Defence rating (FC Cajamarca / UCV Moquegua)
- 1.33 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cajamarca goals. Columns: UCV Moquegua goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cajamarca | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| UCV Moquegua | 18% | 5.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cajamarca or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or UCV Moquegua) | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cajamarca win by 2+ | 49% | 2.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Cajamarca and UCV Moquegua recent form
FC Cajamarca
2W 1D 3L
UCV Moquegua
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Cajamarca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-7
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 2.14
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 14
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
UCV Moquegua away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-10
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.64
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cajamarca at home only, UCV Moquegua away only.
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: FC Cajamarca 2 · draws 0 · UCV Moquegua 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | UCV Moquegua | 2-1 | FC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-11-02 | FC Cajamarca | 2-0 | UCV Moquegua | Segunda División |
| 2025-10-26 | UCV Moquegua | 2-1 | FC Cajamarca | Segunda División |
| 2025-09-06 | FC Cajamarca | 2-1 | UCV Moquegua | Segunda División |
| 2025-08-02 | UCV Moquegua | 2-0 | FC Cajamarca | Segunda División |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
- Sport Huancayo vs Cusco — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs ADT — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Boys 2026-10-17
- FBC Melgar v Deportivo Garcilaso — match page 2026-10-17
- Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau 2026-10-18
- Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Alianza Atletico vs Universitario 2026-10-18
- Cienciano v UTC Cajamarca — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- FC Cajamarca, previous: ADT vs FC Cajamarca: odds and pick
- UCV Moquegua, previous: UCV Moquegua – Cienciano, 2026-10-08