Alianza Atletico vs Universitario preview
In the Peru Primera División fixture, Alianza Atletico has a 39% chance to win against Universitario, who has a 33% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. Alianza Atletico's expected goals stand at 2.51, while Universitario's is 1.44.
There is a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 71%. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Recent form shows Alianza Atletico winning 6 of their last 7 matches, while Universitario has 4 wins in their last 6. These factors could influence the match outcome.
Alianza Atletico vs Universitario: model vs market
| Source | Alianza Atletico | Draw | Universitario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| Market | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Published | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Edge | +28% | -9% | -19% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 1.44.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Alianza Atletico below the model: +28.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.00, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Alianza Atletico vs Universitario odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alianza Atletico, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Atletico | 2.80 | 2.88 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.00 | 3.20 | +0.20 |
| Universitario | 2.40 | 2.38 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alianza Atletico and Universitario expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.96
- Attack rating (Alianza Atletico / Universitario)
- 1.36 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Alianza Atletico / Universitario)
- 1.13 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alianza Atletico vs Universitario score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alianza Atletico goals. Columns: Universitario goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alianza Atletico vs Universitario goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alianza Atletico vs Universitario
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Atletico | 39% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Universitario | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alianza Atletico or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Universitario) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Atletico win by 2+ | 40% | 2.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alianza Atletico and Universitario recent form
Alianza Atletico
5W 0D 1L
Universitario
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alianza Atletico at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-1
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 0.77
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Universitario away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-4
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza Atletico at home only, Universitario away only.
Alianza Atletico vs Universitario head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Alianza Atletico 3 · draws 2 · Universitario 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Universitario | 1-2 | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-10-01 | Alianza Atletico | 0-2 | Universitario | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-05-11 | Universitario | 0-1 | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División |
| 2024-09-15 | Alianza Atletico | 0-3 | Universitario | Primera División |
| 2024-04-06 | Universitario | 1-0 | Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| 2023-07-04 | Universitario | 2-0 | Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| 2023-05-14 | Alianza Atletico | 3-1 | Universitario | Primera División |
| 2022-09-30 | Alianza Atletico | 2-2 | Universitario | Primera División |
| 2022-05-07 | Universitario | 3-1 | Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| 2021-07-19 | Universitario | 2-2 | Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
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- Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs ADT — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Boys 2026-10-17
- FBC Melgar v Deportivo Garcilaso — match page 2026-10-17
- Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau 2026-10-18
- Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- FC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua — match page 2026-10-18
- Cienciano v UTC Cajamarca — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Alianza Atletico, previous: Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico: odds and pick
- Universitario, previous: Universitario v FBC Melgar analysis