UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar preview
In the fixture between UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar, the 1X2 probabilities show FBC Melgar at 54% compared to UTC Cajamarca's 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 56%, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match.
UTC Cajamarca is struggling with six consecutive losses, while FBC Melgar has a mixed recent form with two wins and four draws in their last six matches. The expected goals suggest UTC Cajamarca will score 1.07 and FBC Melgar 1.85, supporting the idea of FBC Melgar winning. However, any unexpected improvement in UTC Cajamarca's performance could alter the outcome.
UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar: model vs market
| Source | UTC Cajamarca | Draw | FBC Melgar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (UTC Cajamarca / FBC Melgar)
- 0.82 / 1.19
- Defence rating (UTC Cajamarca / FBC Melgar)
- 1.47 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: UTC Cajamarca goals. Columns: FBC Melgar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UTC Cajamarca | 21% | 4.83 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| FBC Melgar | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.77 |
| No | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (UTC Cajamarca or draw) | 46% | 2.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or FBC Melgar) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | FBC Melgar win by 2+ | 32% | 3.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar recent form
UTC Cajamarca
0W 0D 6L
FBC Melgar
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
UTC Cajamarca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-6-6
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 4 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
FBC Melgar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-4
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.36
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: UTC Cajamarca at home only, FBC Melgar away only.
UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: UTC Cajamarca 0 · draws 0 · FBC Melgar 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | FBC Melgar | 2-0 | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-07-19 | UTC Cajamarca | 1-2 | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-02-08 | FBC Melgar | 3-0 | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Atletico Grau v ADT — match page 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- UTC Cajamarca, previous: Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca: odds and pick
- FBC Melgar, previous: FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction