Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente preview
In the fixture between Santa Clara and GIL Vicente, the 1X2 probabilities show Santa Clara at 47%, while GIL Vicente is at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance. Santa Clara has an expected goals figure of 1.32 compared to GIL Vicente's 0.82, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, the recent form suggests a mixed bag; Santa Clara's last five matches show 2 wins and 3 losses, while GIL Vicente has 3 wins and 2 losses. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 36%, and both teams to score is at 42%. These figures indicate that while Santa Clara may have the edge, GIL Vicente's recent form could lead to an unexpected outcome.
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente: model vs market
| Source | Santa Clara | Draw | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 32% | 19% |
| Market | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Published | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.71.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Santa Clara, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 2.19 | 2.23 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.26 | 3.08 | -0.18 |
| GIL Vicente | 3.72 | 3.46 | -0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Santa Clara and GIL Vicente expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.00
- Attack rating (Santa Clara / GIL Vicente)
- 1.10 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Santa Clara / GIL Vicente)
- 0.75 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Santa Clara goals. Columns: GIL Vicente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Clara | 44% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.25 | |
| GIL Vicente | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.63 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Santa Clara or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or GIL Vicente) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Clara win by 2+ | 23% | 4.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Santa Clara and GIL Vicente recent form
Santa Clara
3W 1D 2L
GIL Vicente
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Santa Clara at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
GIL Vicente away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Santa Clara at home only, GIL Vicente away only.
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Santa Clara 1 · draws 0 · GIL Vicente 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Santa Clara | 1-0 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-11-03 | GIL Vicente | 1-0 | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Famalicao vs Arouca — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Nacional vs Academico Viseu 2026-11-07
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- Sporting CP vs Moreirense 2026-11-07
- Estoril v Maritimo — match page 2026-11-08
- Vitória SC vs FC Porto — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Rio Ave v SC Braga — match page 2026-11-08
- Estrela v Benfica — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Santa Clara, previous: Maritimo vs Santa Clara prediction
- GIL Vicente, previous: GIL Vicente – Vitória SC, 2026-11-02
- GIL Vicente, next: GIL Vicente vs Olhanense prediction