GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC: model vs market
| Source | GIL Vicente | Draw | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
GIL Vicente and Vitória SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.01
- Attack rating (GIL Vicente / Vitória SC)
- 0.83 / 0.93
- Defence rating (GIL Vicente / Vitória SC)
- 0.88 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: GIL Vicente goals. Columns: Vitória SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GIL Vicente | 33% | 3.02 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Vitória SC | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.40 |
| No | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (GIL Vicente or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| X2 (draw or Vitória SC) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitória SC win by 2+ | 13% | 7.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
GIL Vicente and Vitória SC recent form
GIL Vicente
3W 1D 2L
Vitória SC
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
GIL Vicente at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Vitória SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: GIL Vicente at home only, Vitória SC away only.
GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: GIL Vicente 0 · draws 1 · Vitória SC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | GIL Vicente | 0-1 | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-12-08 | Vitória SC | 0-0 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Casa Pia v Sporting CP — match page 2026-10-30
- Moreirense vs Estrela — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FC Porto vs Estoril 2026-10-31
- Arouca vs Nacional — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Maritimo v Santa Clara — match page 2026-11-01
- Academico Viseu v Rio Ave — match page 2026-11-01
- SC Braga vs Famalicao 2026-11-01
- Benfica vs Alverca — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- GIL Vicente, previous: GIL Vicente vs FC Porto: odds and pick
- Vitória SC, previous: Vitória SC – Maritimo, 2026-10-23