Maritimo vs Santa Clara preview
In the Primeira Liga fixture between Maritimo and Santa Clara, the 1X2 probabilities show Santa Clara at 44%, while Maritimo stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, which occurs with an 11% probability.
Santa Clara's recent form includes three wins in their last five matches, while Maritimo has only one win in the same period. This disparity in form could influence the match outcome. Additionally, our model indicates a 52% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance for both teams to score, suggesting that while Santa Clara is favored, unexpected results could still occur.
Maritimo vs Santa Clara: model vs market
| Source | Maritimo | Draw | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 25% | 57% |
| Market | 28% | 30% | 41% |
| Published | 26% | 29% | 45% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Santa Clara below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Maritimo vs Santa Clara odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Santa Clara, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 3.14 | 3.30 | +0.16 |
| Draw | 3.19 | 3.09 | -0.10 |
| Santa Clara | 2.50 | 2.25 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Maritimo and Santa Clara expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Maritimo / Santa Clara)
- 0.84 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Maritimo / Santa Clara)
- 1.43 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Maritimo vs Santa Clara score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Maritimo goals. Columns: Santa Clara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Maritimo vs Santa Clara goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Maritimo vs Santa Clara
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maritimo | 26% | 3.87 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Santa Clara | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.87 |
| No | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Maritimo or draw) | 55% | 1.83 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Santa Clara) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Clara win by 2+ | 33% | 3.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Maritimo and Santa Clara recent form
Maritimo
1W 1D 4L
Santa Clara
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Maritimo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
Santa Clara away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Maritimo at home only, Santa Clara away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Casa Pia v Sporting CP — match page 2026-10-30
- Moreirense vs Estrela — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FC Porto vs Estoril 2026-10-31
- Arouca vs Nacional — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Academico Viseu v Rio Ave — match page 2026-11-01
- SC Braga vs Famalicao 2026-11-01
- Benfica vs Alverca — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Maritimo, previous: Vitória SC – Maritimo, 2026-10-23
- Santa Clara, previous: Santa Clara vs Benfica prediction