Casa Pia vs Sporting CP preview
In the fixture between Casa Pia and Sporting CP, the 1X2 probabilities show Sporting CP with a strong 71% chance to win, while Casa Pia has just 11%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at 11%. Sporting CP's expected goals stand at 1.70, compared to Casa Pia's 0.98, indicating a potential struggle for the home team to find the net.
However, there are factors that could alter this outcome. Casa Pia's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 6 matches, which may boost their confidence. Additionally, both teams to score is at 52%, suggesting that Casa Pia could find a way to score against Sporting CP, despite their lower expected goals. Over 2.5 goals is also at 50%, hinting at a possibility for a more open game.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: model vs market
| Source | Casa Pia | Draw | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| Market | 9% | 16% | 76% |
| Published | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| Edge | +3% | +3% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.98.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.29, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sporting CP, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 11.50 | 10.80 | -0.70 |
| Draw | 6.05 | 6.00 | -0.05 |
| Sporting CP | 1.23 | 1.24 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Casa Pia and Sporting CP expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.67
- Attack rating (Casa Pia / Sporting CP)
- 0.69 / 1.49
- Defence rating (Casa Pia / Sporting CP)
- 0.92 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Casa Pia goals. Columns: Sporting CP goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Casa Pia | 12% | 8.58 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.46 | |
| Sporting CP | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Casa Pia or draw) | 30% | 3.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting CP) | 88% | 1.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting CP win by 2+ | 30% | 3.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Casa Pia and Sporting CP recent form
Casa Pia
3W 1D 2L
Sporting CP
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Casa Pia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 3.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 8 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting CP away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Casa Pia at home only, Sporting CP away only.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Casa Pia 0 · draws 0 · Sporting CP 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Sporting CP | 3-0 | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-08-08 | Casa Pia | 0-2 | Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Moreirense vs Estrela — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FC Porto vs Estoril 2026-10-31
- Arouca vs Nacional — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Maritimo v Santa Clara — match page 2026-11-01
- Academico Viseu v Rio Ave — match page 2026-11-01
- SC Braga vs Famalicao 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Casa Pia, previous: Estrela – Casa Pia, 2026-10-24
- Sporting CP, previous: Sporting CP – Academico Viseu, 2026-10-25
- Sporting CP, next: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP: odds and pick