Moreirense vs Estrela preview
In the Primeira Liga fixture between Moreirense and Estrela, the 1X2 probabilities show Estrela at 42%, compared to Moreirense's 30%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2 in favor of Estrela, which occurs with a 9% probability.
Both teams have shown varying recent form, with Moreirense recording L-L-D-W-L-L and Estrela at W-L-L-D-W-D. The expected goals indicate Moreirense at 1.24 and Estrela at 1.50. While Over 2.5 goals stands at 52% and both teams to score at 56%, factors such as defensive performance or unexpected player changes could influence the outcome.
Moreirense vs Estrela: model vs market
| Source | Moreirense | Draw | Estrela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Published | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Moreirense vs Estrela odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Estrela, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 2.89 | 2.94 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.27 | -0.08 |
| Estrela | 2.58 | 2.41 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Moreirense and Estrela expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Moreirense / Estrela)
- 0.87 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Moreirense / Estrela)
- 1.11 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Moreirense vs Estrela score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Moreirense goals. Columns: Estrela goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Moreirense vs Estrela goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Moreirense vs Estrela
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Moreirense | 34% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Estrela | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Moreirense or draw) | 62% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Estrela) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Estrela win by 2+ | 15% | 6.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Moreirense and Estrela recent form
Moreirense
2W 1D 3L
Estrela
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Moreirense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Estrela away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Moreirense at home only, Estrela away only.
Moreirense vs Estrela head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Moreirense 1 · draws 1 · Estrela 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Moreirense | 3-2 | Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-12-20 | Estrela | 0-0 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Casa Pia v Sporting CP — match page 2026-10-30
- FC Porto vs Estoril 2026-10-31
- Arouca vs Nacional — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Maritimo v Santa Clara — match page 2026-11-01
- Academico Viseu v Rio Ave — match page 2026-11-01
- SC Braga vs Famalicao 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Moreirense, previous: Estoril v Moreirense analysis
- Estrela, previous: Estrela – Casa Pia, 2026-10-24