Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave preview
In the fixture between Academico Viseu and Rio Ave, the 1X2 probabilities show Academico Viseu at 51% to win, while Rio Ave sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13% chance according to our model. Academico Viseu has been in strong recent form, winning 6 of their last 6 matches, while Rio Ave has struggled, winning only 2 of their last 6.
The expected goals indicate Academico Viseu at 1.96 and Rio Ave at 0.71. With Over 2.5 goals predicted at 50% and both teams to score at 45%, the match could see more action than expected, especially if Rio Ave improves their scoring. However, Academico Viseu's strong form could lead to a low-scoring game if they dominate possession.
Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave: model vs market
| Source | Academico Viseu | Draw | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| Market | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Published | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Academico Viseu below our published probability: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Academico Viseu, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Academico Viseu | 2.04 | 2.04 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.46 | +0.00 |
| Rio Ave | 3.54 | 3.54 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Academico Viseu and Rio Ave expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Academico Viseu / Rio Ave)
- 0.96 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Academico Viseu / Rio Ave)
- 0.75 / 1.42
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Academico Viseu goals. Columns: Rio Ave goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academico Viseu | 51% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Rio Ave | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Academico Viseu or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Rio Ave) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Academico Viseu win by 2+ | 41% | 2.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Academico Viseu and Rio Ave recent form
Academico Viseu
5W 0D 1L
Rio Ave
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Academico Viseu at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rio Ave away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Academico Viseu at home only, Rio Ave away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Casa Pia v Sporting CP — match page 2026-10-30
- Moreirense vs Estrela — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FC Porto vs Estoril 2026-10-31
- Arouca vs Nacional — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Maritimo v Santa Clara — match page 2026-11-01
- SC Braga vs Famalicao 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Academico Viseu, previous: Sporting CP – Academico Viseu, 2026-10-25
- Rio Ave, previous: Rio Ave vs Famalicao: odds and pick