SC Braga vs Famalicao preview
In the match between SC Braga and Famalicao, the 1X2 probabilities show SC Braga at 48%, Famalicao at 24%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance according to our model. SC Braga's expected goals stand at 0.92, while Famalicao's is higher at 1.16.
Famalicao's recent form includes 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches, while SC Braga has struggled with 1 win and 1 draw in the same period. Both teams to score has a 43% probability, which could challenge the expected outcome if both teams find the net. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
SC Braga vs Famalicao: model vs market
| Source | SC Braga | Draw | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 32% | 40% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Published | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Edge | -7% | +2% | +5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
SC Braga vs Famalicao odds movement
Median bookmaker price on SC Braga, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | 1.73 | 1.69 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.63 | 3.73 | +0.09 |
| Famalicao | 4.90 | 5.07 | +0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
SC Braga and Famalicao expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.08
- Attack rating (SC Braga / Famalicao)
- 0.73 / 1.09
- Defence rating (SC Braga / Famalicao)
- 0.86 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SC Braga vs Famalicao score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SC Braga goals. Columns: Famalicao goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SC Braga vs Famalicao goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SC Braga vs Famalicao
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Braga | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Famalicao | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.34 |
| No | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SC Braga or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Famalicao) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Braga win by 2+ | 10% | 9.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
SC Braga and Famalicao recent form
SC Braga
1W 1D 4L
Famalicao
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SC Braga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Famalicao away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: SC Braga at home only, Famalicao away only.
SC Braga vs Famalicao head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: SC Braga 1 · draws 1 · Famalicao 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | SC Braga | 2-2 | Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-12-06 | Famalicao | 1-2 | SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Casa Pia v Sporting CP — match page 2026-10-30
- Moreirense vs Estrela — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FC Porto vs Estoril 2026-10-31
- Arouca vs Nacional — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Maritimo v Santa Clara — match page 2026-11-01
- Academico Viseu v Rio Ave — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- SC Braga, previous: Nacional v SC Braga analysis
- SC Braga, next: Aarhus vs SC Braga: odds and pick
- Famalicao, previous: Rio Ave vs Famalicao: odds and pick