Benfica vs Alverca: model vs market
| Source | Benfica | Draw | Alverca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Benfica and Alverca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.43
- Attack rating (Benfica / Alverca)
- 1.82 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Benfica / Alverca)
- 0.74 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Benfica vs Alverca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Benfica goals. Columns: Alverca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Benfica vs Alverca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Benfica vs Alverca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 77% | 1.29 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.75 | |
| Alverca | 8% | 13.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Benfica or draw) | 92% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.17 | |
| X2 (draw or Alverca) | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win by 2+ | 54% | 1.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Benfica and Alverca recent form
Benfica
5W 0D 1L
Alverca
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Benfica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Alverca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Benfica at home only, Alverca away only.
Benfica vs Alverca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Benfica 2 · draws 0 · Alverca 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Benfica | 2-1 | Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-08-31 | Alverca | 1-2 | Benfica | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Casa Pia v Sporting CP — match page 2026-10-30
- Moreirense vs Estrela — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FC Porto vs Estoril 2026-10-31
- Arouca vs Nacional — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Maritimo v Santa Clara — match page 2026-11-01
- Academico Viseu v Rio Ave — match page 2026-11-01
- SC Braga vs Famalicao 2026-11-01
- GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Benfica, previous: Santa Clara vs Benfica prediction
- Benfica, next: Benfica vs Lech Poznan: odds and pick
- Alverca, previous: Alverca vs Arouca prediction