Arouca vs Nacional preview
Arouca faces Nacional with a strong 71% probability to win according to our model, while Nacional sits at just 10%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Arouca's expected goals of 2.36 compared to Nacional's 0.82.
Nacional's recent form shows six consecutive losses, while Arouca has three wins in their last five matches. This could impact the outcome, as Arouca's confidence is higher. The model also suggests a 62% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance for both teams to score, but if Nacional improves their performance, these predictions could change.
Arouca vs Nacional: model vs market
| Source | Arouca | Draw | Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 21% | 13% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 23% |
| Published | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Arouca below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Arouca vs Nacional odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arouca, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.83 | 1.83 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.71 | 3.70 | -0.01 |
| Nacional | 4.11 | 4.05 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arouca and Nacional expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.95
- Attack rating (Arouca / Nacional)
- 1.22 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Arouca / Nacional)
- 0.86 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arouca vs Nacional score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arouca goals. Columns: Nacional goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arouca vs Nacional goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arouca vs Nacional
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arouca | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Nacional | 21% | 4.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arouca or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Nacional) | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arouca win by 2+ | 42% | 2.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Arouca and Nacional recent form
Arouca
3W 2D 1L
Nacional
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arouca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nacional away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arouca at home only, Nacional away only.
Arouca vs Nacional head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Arouca 2 · draws 0 · Nacional 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Arouca | 3-0 | Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-09-20 | Nacional | 1-2 | Arouca | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Casa Pia v Sporting CP — match page 2026-10-30
- Moreirense vs Estrela — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FC Porto vs Estoril 2026-10-31
- Maritimo v Santa Clara — match page 2026-11-01
- Academico Viseu v Rio Ave — match page 2026-11-01
- SC Braga vs Famalicao 2026-11-01
- Benfica vs Alverca — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Arouca, previous: Alverca vs Arouca prediction
- Nacional, previous: Nacional v SC Braga analysis