FC Porto vs Estoril preview
FC Porto faces Estoril with a 68% probability of winning, while Estoril has just a 10% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which occurs 15% of the time according to our model. FC Porto's expected goals stand at 1.90 compared to Estoril's 0.58, indicating a significant attacking advantage for the home side.
However, recent form shows FC Porto has mixed results with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. Estoril, on the other hand, has struggled, recording just two draws and three losses in their latest outings. This inconsistency could impact the match outcome, making it less predictable despite the strong statistical backing for FC Porto.
FC Porto vs Estoril: model vs market
| Source | FC Porto | Draw | Estoril |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 21% | 9% |
| Market | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Published | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Porto vs Estoril odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Porto, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 1.20 | 1.25 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 7.60 | 5.88 | -1.72 |
| Estoril | 15.00 | 10.60 | -4.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Porto and Estoril expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (FC Porto / Estoril)
- 1.20 / 0.62
- Defence rating (FC Porto / Estoril)
- 0.79 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Porto vs Estoril score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Porto goals. Columns: Estoril goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Porto vs Estoril goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Porto vs Estoril
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Porto | 74% | 1.35 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.80 | |
| Estoril | 9% | 11.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.48 |
| No | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Porto or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or Estoril) | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Porto win by 2+ | 45% | 2.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Porto and Estoril recent form
FC Porto
4W 0D 2L
Estoril
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Porto at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 8 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Estoril away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Porto at home only, Estoril away only.
FC Porto vs Estoril head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: FC Porto 2 · draws 0 · Estoril 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Estoril | 1-3 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-11-30 | FC Porto | 1-0 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Casa Pia v Sporting CP — match page 2026-10-30
- Moreirense vs Estrela — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Arouca vs Nacional — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Maritimo v Santa Clara — match page 2026-11-01
- Academico Viseu v Rio Ave — match page 2026-11-01
- SC Braga vs Famalicao 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- FC Porto, previous: GIL Vicente vs FC Porto: odds and pick
- FC Porto, next: FC Porto v Napoli analysis
- Estoril, previous: Estoril v Moreirense analysis