Sassuolo vs Lazio preview
In the Serie A match between Sassuolo and Lazio, the 1X2 probabilities show Sassuolo at 36% and Lazio at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 7% chance. The expected goals indicate Sassuolo at 1.89 and Lazio at 1.59, suggesting a competitive match.
Both teams to score has a 69% likelihood, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 67%. Sassuolo's recent form shows L-D-L-W-D-D, while Lazio is in strong shape with W-W-W-D-W-W. A potential factor that could affect the outcome is Sassuolo's inconsistency compared to Lazio's winning streak.
Why this pick: Sassuolo vs Lazio
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sassuolo 10, Lazio 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Sassuolo vs Lazio: model vs market
| Source | Sassuolo | Draw | Lazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Market | 29% | 27% | 45% |
| Published | 31% | 27% | 43% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sassuolo vs Lazio odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lazio, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 2.92 | 3.32 | +0.40 |
| Draw | 3.34 | 3.60 | +0.26 |
| Lazio | 2.48 | 2.15 | -0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sassuolo and Lazio expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.39
- Attack rating (Sassuolo / Lazio)
- 1.19 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Sassuolo / Lazio)
- 1.31 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sassuolo vs Lazio score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sassuolo goals. Columns: Lazio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sassuolo vs Lazio goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sassuolo vs Lazio
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sassuolo | 31% | 3.26 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Lazio | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sassuolo or draw) | 57% | 1.75 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Lazio) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lazio win by 2+ | 20% | 4.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sassuolo and Lazio recent form
Sassuolo
1W 2D 3L
Lazio
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sassuolo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lazio away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sassuolo at home only, Lazio away only.
Injuries & availability
Sassuolo absences
-
D. Boloca
muscle injury
-
F. Leysen
knee injury
-
I. Kone
broken leg
-
J. Idzes
muscle injury
-
Y. Paz
knee injury
Lazio absences
-
A. Furlanetto
knee injury
- A. Gudmundsson shoulder injury
-
A. Marusic
muscle injury
-
N. Rovella
calf injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Sassuolo vs Lazio head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sassuolo 3 · draws 2 · Lazio 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Lazio | 2-1 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2025-09-14 | Sassuolo | 1-0 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2024-05-26 | Lazio | 1-1 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2023-10-21 | Sassuolo | 0-2 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2023-05-03 | Lazio | 2-0 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2023-01-15 | Sassuolo | 0-2 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2022-04-02 | Lazio | 2-1 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2021-12-12 | Sassuolo | 2-1 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2021-08-14 | Lazio | 1-1 | Sassuolo | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-05-23 | Sassuolo | 2-0 | Lazio | Serie A |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Roma v Cagliari — match page 2026-10-27
- Torino vs Como 2026-10-27
- AC Milan vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Venezia vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese 2026-10-28
- Genoa vs Juventus 2026-10-28
- Monza v Napoli — match page 2026-10-28
- Frosinone v Lecce — match page 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Sassuolo, previous: Como v Sassuolo analysis
- Sassuolo, next: Sassuolo v Fiorentina analysis
- Lazio, previous: Lazio – Parma Calcio 1913, 2026-10-24
- Lazio, next: Lazio – Cagliari, 2026-11-01