Updated

Serie A · Matchday 9

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese

· Ennio Tardini, Parma

Alin prediction Udinese to win

Ablended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Parma Calcio 1913DrawUdinese
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Udinese is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Parma Calcio 19133.13 Draw3.40 Udinese2.56

Price as of

Expected return at 2.56: -3.7% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese preview

In the Serie A match between Parma Calcio 1913 and Udinese, the 1X2 probabilities show Udinese at 39% to win, while Parma Calcio 1913 sits at 32%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score has a 65% probability, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 61%.

Parma's recent form shows 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Udinese has 1 win in their last 6 as well, but they lost 5 in a row before their recent victory. The expected goals are close, with Parma at 1.51 and Udinese at 1.63. These factors could influence the outcome, especially if either team improves their form.

Why this pick: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Parma Calcio 1913 10, Udinese 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Parma Calcio 1913Udinese
0.93 xG per 90 1.06
0.93 npxG per 90 1.06
15.7 PPDA 17.9
5.7 Deep completions per 90 5.6
0.81 xPTS per 90 0.66

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceParma Calcio 1913DrawUdinese
Model37%28%35%
Market32%30%38%
Published33%29%38%
Edge+1%0%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.56, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Udinese, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 2.44Now 2.48 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Parma Calcio 19133.023.00-0.02
Draw3.283.20-0.08
Udinese2.442.48+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Parma Calcio 1913 and Udinese expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.60Parma Calcio 1913
1.55Udinese
Total expected goals
3.15
Attack rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Udinese)
0.77 / 0.94
Defence rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Udinese)
1.37 / 1.55

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 4.5% 5.2% 2.7% 1.5% 1 4.7% 12.7% 8.3% 4.3% 2.3% 2 5.5% 8.5% 6.6% 3.4% 1.9% 3 2.9% 4.5% 3.5% 1.8% 1.0% 4+ 1.7% 2.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.6%

Rows: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Columns: Udinese goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Parma Calcio 191333%3.02
Draw29%3.41
Udinese38%2.66
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.64
Under 2.539%2.56
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.54
No35%2.86
Double chance1X (Parma Calcio 1913 or draw)62%1.60
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Udinese)67%1.49
Handicap -1Udinese win by 2+18%5.52
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Parma Calcio 1913 and Udinese recent form

Parma Calcio 1913 1W 1D 4L
Udinese 0W 0D 6L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Parma Calcio 1913 at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Udinese away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.

League matches this season before kick-off: Parma Calcio 1913 at home only, Udinese away only.

Injuries & availability

Parma Calcio 1913 absences

  • H. Nicolussi Caviglia thigh injury
  • L. Valenti coach's decision
  • N. Elphege illness
  • P. Almqvist calf injury

Udinese absences

  • A. Zanoli muscle injury
  • D. Alaba calf injury
  • I. Gueye ankle injury
  • O. Solet muscle injury
  • V. Bayo thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Parma Calcio 1913 4 · draws 2 · Udinese 4.

Parma Calcio 1913DrawsUdinese
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-18Udinese0-1Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2025-11-29Parma Calcio 19130-2UdineseSerie A
2025-03-01Udinese1-0Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2024-09-16Parma Calcio 19132-3UdineseSerie A
2021-02-21Parma Calcio 19132-2UdineseSerie A
2020-10-18Udinese3-2Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2020-01-26Parma Calcio 19132-0UdineseSerie A
2019-09-01Udinese1-3Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2019-01-19Udinese1-2Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2018-08-19Parma Calcio 19132-2UdineseSerie A

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Udinese to win Predicted score 1 – 2 A Bet on Udinese
Our pick: Udinese to win 18+ Bet Now