AC Milan vs Bologna preview
AC Milan faces Bologna with a 58% chance of winning, while Bologna has an 18% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with AC Milan expected to score 2.25 goals and Bologna 1.36. The model indicates a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 68%.
Recent form shows AC Milan with mixed results, having won 2, drawn 2, and lost 1 of their last 5 matches. Bologna's form is weaker, with 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5. While AC Milan has a solid head-to-head record with 4 wins in the last 6 encounters, any unexpected defensive errors could alter the outcome.
Why this pick: AC Milan vs Bologna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (AC Milan 10, Bologna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
AC Milan vs Bologna: model vs market
| Source | AC Milan | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 17% |
| Published | 56% | 24% | 19% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.49.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.69, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
AC Milan vs Bologna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AC Milan, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 1.60 | 1.62 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 4.11 | 3.90 | -0.21 |
| Bologna | 5.47 | 5.50 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AC Milan and Bologna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.57
- Attack rating (AC Milan / Bologna)
- 1.41 / 1.08
- Defence rating (AC Milan / Bologna)
- 1.15 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AC Milan vs Bologna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Bologna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AC Milan vs Bologna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AC Milan vs Bologna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Bologna | 19% | 5.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AC Milan or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Bologna) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Milan win by 2+ | 30% | 3.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AC Milan and Bologna recent form
AC Milan
4W 1D 1L
Bologna
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AC Milan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bologna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: AC Milan at home only, Bologna away only.
Injuries & availability
AC Milan absences
-
A. Rabiot
calf injury
-
A. Saelemaekers
ankle injury
-
D. Moreira
thigh injury
-
M. Gabbia
thigh injury
- M. Gila ankle injury
- R. Loftus-Cheek injury
-
S. Chukwueze
hip injury
Bologna absences
- E. Holm thigh injury
-
R. Orsolini
thigh injury
- R. Piccoli hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
AC Milan vs Bologna head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: AC Milan 5 · draws 3 · Bologna 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Bologna | 0-3 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2025-09-14 | AC Milan | 1-0 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2025-05-14 | AC Milan | 0-1 | Bologna | Coppa Italia |
| 2025-05-09 | AC Milan | 3-1 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2025-02-27 | Bologna | 2-1 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2024-01-27 | AC Milan | 2-2 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2023-08-21 | Bologna | 0-2 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2023-04-15 | Bologna | 1-1 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2022-08-27 | AC Milan | 2-0 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2022-04-04 | AC Milan | 0-0 | Bologna | Serie A |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Sassuolo v Lazio — match page 2026-10-27
- Roma v Cagliari — match page 2026-10-27
- Torino vs Como 2026-10-27
- Venezia vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese 2026-10-28
- Genoa vs Juventus 2026-10-28
- Monza v Napoli — match page 2026-10-28
- Frosinone v Lecce — match page 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- AC Milan, previous: Udinese vs AC Milan prediction
- AC Milan, next: AC Milan vs Inter: odds and pick
- Bologna, previous: Cagliari v Bologna analysis
- Bologna, next: Bologna vs Monza: odds and pick