Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana preview
In the match between Aluminij and Olimpija Ljubljana, the 1X2 probabilities show Aluminij at 39% to win, while Olimpija Ljubljana sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 11% chance. Aluminij has an expected goals figure of 1.23 compared to Olimpija Ljubljana's 1.06, which suggests a close contest.
However, both teams to score stands at 48%, indicating a reasonable chance that both sides could find the net. Recent form shows Aluminij with two wins in their last five games, while Olimpija Ljubljana has three wins in the same period. This could impact the match outcome, as form can influence performance on the day.
Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana: model vs market
| Source | Aluminij | Draw | Olimpija Ljubljana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Aluminij and Olimpija Ljubljana expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.29
- Attack rating (Aluminij / Olimpija Ljubljana)
- 1.07 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Aluminij / Olimpija Ljubljana)
- 0.85 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aluminij goals. Columns: Olimpija Ljubljana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aluminij | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.11 |
| No | 52% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aluminij or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Olimpija Ljubljana) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aluminij win by 2+ | 18% | 5.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Aluminij and Olimpija Ljubljana recent form
Aluminij
3W 2D 1L
Olimpija Ljubljana
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aluminij at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Olimpija Ljubljana away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aluminij at home only, Olimpija Ljubljana away only.
Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Aluminij 0 · draws 1 · Olimpija Ljubljana 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1-0 | Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| 2026-04-11 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 2-1 | Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| 2026-02-05 | Aluminij | 1-2 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| 2025-10-03 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1-1 | Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| 2025-07-26 | Aluminij | 0-3 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
Before and after this match
- Aluminij, previous: Celje vs Aluminij prediction
- Olimpija Ljubljana, previous: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura: odds and pick