Kitara vs URA preview
In the Uganda Premier League fixture between Kitara and URA, the 1X2 probabilities show Kitara at 48%, a draw at 29%, and URA at 23%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 12%. Kitara's expected goals stand at 1.48, while URA's is 0.96, indicating a stronger attacking performance from Kitara.
However, there are factors that could challenge this prediction. Both teams to score is at 49%, suggesting a close contest where URA could find the net. Additionally, Kitara's recent form shows a mix of results, which could lead to an unexpected outcome. URA's recent struggles, with 6 matches yielding only 1 win, might also impact their performance.
Kitara vs URA: model vs market
| Source | Kitara | Draw | URA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 31% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 44% | 31% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kitara and URA expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (Kitara / URA)
- 1.08 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Kitara / URA)
- 1.13 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kitara vs URA score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kitara goals. Columns: URA goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kitara vs URA goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kitara vs URA
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kitara | 44% | 2.29 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.25 | |
| URA | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kitara or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or URA) | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kitara win by 2+ | 21% | 4.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kitara and URA recent form
Kitara
3W 1D 2L
URA
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kitara at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
URA away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kitara at home only, URA away only.
Kitara vs URA head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Kitara 1 · draws 1 · URA 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | Kitara | 1-1 | URA | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-12-04 | URA | 0-1 | Kitara | Uganda Premier League |
Before and after this match
- Kitara, previous: Police v Kitara analysis
- URA, previous: Kataka vs URA prediction