Kataka vs URA preview
In the Uganda Premier League fixture between Kataka and URA, the 1X2 probabilities show URA at 47%, compared to Kataka's 25%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 10% chance. Kataka's expected goals stand at 1.07, while URA's is higher at 1.55, indicating a potential advantage for URA.
Kataka's recent form is L-D-L-L-L-D, reflecting struggles, while URA has a mixed form with W-W-L-D-L-L. The model suggests a 49% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance for both teams to score. However, if Kataka improves their attacking play or URA's defense falters, these predictions could change.
Kataka vs URA: model vs market
| Source | Kataka | Draw | URA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kataka and URA expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (Kataka / URA)
- 0.89 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Kataka / URA)
- 1.85 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kataka vs URA score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kataka goals. Columns: URA goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kataka vs URA goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kataka vs URA
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kataka | 25% | 4.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| URA | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kataka or draw) | 53% | 1.89 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or URA) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | URA win by 2+ | 25% | 4.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kataka and URA recent form
Kataka
0W 2D 4L
URA
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kataka at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
URA away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kataka at home only, URA away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- BUL v SC Villa — match page 2026-11-03
- Police vs Kitara — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- NEC vs UPDF 2026-11-03
- KCCA vs Maroons — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- Express vs Blacks Power 2026-11-05
- Ntugasaze v Entebbe UPPC — match page 2026-11-05
- Vipers vs Lugazi 2026-11-05
- Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City — team news & stats 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Kataka, previous: Kataka – Police, 2026-10-30
- URA, previous: URA vs Vipers: odds and pick
- URA, next: Kitara v URA analysis