Vipers vs Lugazi preview
In the Uganda Premier League fixture between Vipers and Lugazi, the 1X2 probabilities show Vipers at 75% and Lugazi at 4%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 22% chance according to our model. Vipers have an expected goals figure of 1.83, while Lugazi stands at just 0.28.
Vipers come into this match with a recent form of L-D-W-D-W-W, while Lugazi has L-D-D-L-L-W. The statistics suggest a strong advantage for Vipers, but the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Factors like an unexpected performance from Lugazi or a lack of finishing from Vipers could lead to a different outcome. Over 2.5 goals has a 35% probability, and both teams to score sits at 21%.
Vipers vs Lugazi: model vs market
| Source | Vipers | Draw | Lugazi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 23% | 6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 71% | 23% | 6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 0.34.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Vipers and Lugazi expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.05
- Attack rating (Vipers / Lugazi)
- 1.22 / 0.65
- Defence rating (Vipers / Lugazi)
- 0.60 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vipers vs Lugazi score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vipers goals. Columns: Lugazi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vipers vs Lugazi goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 24%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vipers vs Lugazi
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vipers | 71% | 1.41 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Lugazi | 6% | 16.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 24% | 4.08 |
| No | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vipers or draw) | 94% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Lugazi) | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vipers win by 2+ | 43% | 2.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vipers and Lugazi recent form
Vipers
2W 2D 2L
Lugazi
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vipers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Lugazi away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vipers at home only, Lugazi away only.
Vipers vs Lugazi head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Vipers 3 · draws 1 · Lugazi 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Vipers | 3-0 | Lugazi | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-12-17 | Lugazi | 1-2 | Vipers | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-04-03 | Vipers | 1-0 | Lugazi | Premier League |
| 2024-09-26 | Lugazi | 0-0 | Vipers | Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- BUL v SC Villa — match page 2026-11-03
- Police vs Kitara — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- NEC vs UPDF 2026-11-03
- Kataka v URA — match page 2026-11-04
- KCCA vs Maroons — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- Express vs Blacks Power 2026-11-05
- Ntugasaze v Entebbe UPPC — match page 2026-11-05
- Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City — team news & stats 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Vipers, previous: URA vs Vipers: odds and pick
- Lugazi, previous: Lugazi – SC Villa, 2026-10-31