Updated

Uganda Premier League · Matchday 10

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City

· Rwamwanja stadium

Alin prediction Mbarara City to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Kigezi HomeBoyzDrawMbarara City
  • WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Bet on Mbarara City

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City preview

In the upcoming match between Kigezi HomeBoyz and Mbarara City, the 1X2 probabilities show Kigezi HomeBoyz at 25%, Mbarara City at 39%, and a draw at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 17% chance according to our model. Kigezi HomeBoyz has struggled recently, recording five losses and one draw, while Mbarara City has a mixed form with two wins, two losses, and two draws.

With expected goals of 0.71 for Kigezi HomeBoyz and 0.97 for Mbarara City, the chances of Over 2.5 goals stand at 24%, and both teams to score at 33%. If Kigezi HomeBoyz can improve their attacking performance, it could challenge the predicted outcome. However, their recent form raises concerns about their ability to convert chances.

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKigezi HomeBoyzDrawMbarara City
Model27%35%37%
Market———
Published27%35%37%
Edge———
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Kigezi HomeBoyz and Mbarara City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.82Kigezi HomeBoyz
1.00Mbarara City
Total expected goals
1.81
Attack rating (Kigezi HomeBoyz / Mbarara City)
0.58 / 0.81
Defence rating (Kigezi HomeBoyz / Mbarara City)
1.40 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.7% 15.0% 8.1% 2.7% 0.8% 1 12.0% 14.6% 6.6% 2.2% 0.7% 2 5.4% 5.4% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 3 1.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 4+ 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Kigezi HomeBoyz goals. Columns: Mbarara City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%
Over 1.5 55%
Over 2.5 27%
Over 3.5 11%
Both teams to score
37%
No goals (0–0)
18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kigezi HomeBoyz27%3.64
Draw35%2.84
Mbarara City37%2.68
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.527%3.67
Under 2.573%1.37
Both teams to scoreYes37%2.74
No63%1.58
Double chance1X (Kigezi HomeBoyz or draw)63%1.60
12 (either side)65%1.54
X2 (draw or Mbarara City)73%1.38
Handicap -1Mbarara City win by 2+15%6.75
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Kigezi HomeBoyz and Mbarara City recent form

Kigezi HomeBoyz 0W 1D 5L
Mbarara City 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kigezi HomeBoyz at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
  • They average 0.5 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.

Mbarara City away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Kigezi HomeBoyz at home only, Mbarara City away only.

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Mbarara City to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Mbarara City
Our pick: Mbarara City to win 18+ Bet Now