KCCA vs Maroons preview
KCCA faces Maroons with a 52% chance of winning, while Maroons has a 19% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 15% of the time according to our model. KCCA's expected goals are 1.41, compared to Maroons' 0.74, indicating a strong offensive edge for KCCA.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score stands at 41%, suggesting that Maroons could find the net. Additionally, KCCA's recent form shows a mix of results, including a loss, which could impact their performance. The confidence grade is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome.
KCCA vs Maroons: model vs market
| Source | KCCA | Draw | Maroons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 27% | 18% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 27% | 18% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
KCCA and Maroons expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.41
- Attack rating (KCCA / Maroons)
- 1.30 / 1.28
- Defence rating (KCCA / Maroons)
- 0.72 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
KCCA vs Maroons score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: KCCA goals. Columns: Maroons goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
KCCA vs Maroons goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for KCCA vs Maroons
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KCCA | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Maroons | 18% | 5.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.20 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (KCCA or draw) | 82% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Maroons) | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | KCCA win by 2+ | 30% | 3.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
KCCA and Maroons recent form
KCCA
5W 1D 0L
Maroons
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
KCCA at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Maroons away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: KCCA at home only, Maroons away only.
KCCA vs Maroons head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: KCCA 4 · draws 4 · Maroons 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | KCCA | 3-0 | Maroons | Uganda Premier League |
| 2026-01-21 | Maroons | 0-0 | KCCA | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-03-02 | Maroons | 0-0 | KCCA | Premier League |
| 2024-10-31 | KCCA | 5-0 | Maroons | Premier League |
| 2024-05-18 | Maroons | 1-1 | KCCA | Premier League |
| 2023-10-03 | KCCA | 1-2 | Maroons | Premier League |
| 2023-04-01 | KCCA | 1-1 | Maroons | Premier League |
| 2022-10-28 | Maroons | 1-0 | KCCA | Premier League |
| 2020-02-04 | KCCA | 2-1 | Maroons | Premier League |
| 2019-10-22 | Maroons | 1-3 | KCCA | Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- BUL v SC Villa — match page 2026-11-03
- Police vs Kitara — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- NEC vs UPDF 2026-11-03
- Kataka v URA — match page 2026-11-04
- Express vs Blacks Power 2026-11-05
- Ntugasaze v Entebbe UPPC — match page 2026-11-05
- Vipers vs Lugazi 2026-11-05
- Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City — team news & stats 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- KCCA, previous: Mbarara City vs KCCA prediction
- Maroons, previous: Maroons vs Kigezi HomeBoyz: odds and pick