Police vs Kitara: model vs market
| Source | Police | Draw | Kitara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 31% | 31% | 37% |
| Published | 34% | 31% | 36% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Police and Kitara expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Police / Kitara)
- 1.05 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Police / Kitara)
- 1.22 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Police vs Kitara score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Police goals. Columns: Kitara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Police vs Kitara goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Police vs Kitara
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Police | 34% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Kitara | 36% | 2.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Police or draw) | 64% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Kitara) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kitara win by 2+ | 13% | 7.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Police and Kitara recent form
Police
3W 1D 2L
Kitara
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Police at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Kitara away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Police at home only, Kitara away only.
Police vs Kitara head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Police 3 · draws 1 · Kitara 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Kitara | 2-2 | Police | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-11-27 | Police | 1-2 | Kitara | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-03-27 | Police | 0-1 | Kitara | Premier League |
| 2024-10-03 | Kitara | 0-1 | Police | Premier League |
| 2021-04-20 | Police | 4-1 | Kitara | Premier League |
| 2020-12-12 | Kitara | 0-5 | Police | Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- BUL v SC Villa — match page 2026-11-03
- NEC vs UPDF 2026-11-03
- Kataka v URA — match page 2026-11-04
- KCCA vs Maroons — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- Express vs Blacks Power 2026-11-05
- Ntugasaze v Entebbe UPPC — match page 2026-11-05
- Vipers vs Lugazi 2026-11-05
- Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City — team news & stats 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Police, previous: Kataka – Police, 2026-10-30
- Kitara, previous: UPDF v Kitara analysis
- Kitara, next: Kitara v URA analysis