NEC vs UPDF: model vs market
| Source | NEC | Draw | UPDF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 23% | 8% |
| Market | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Published | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.44.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
NEC and UPDF expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (NEC / UPDF)
- 1.45 / 0.66
- Defence rating (NEC / UPDF)
- 0.77 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NEC vs UPDF score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NEC goals. Columns: UPDF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NEC vs UPDF goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NEC vs UPDF
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC | 65% | 1.54 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| UPDF | 12% | 8.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.25 |
| No | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NEC or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or UPDF) | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | NEC win by 2+ | 43% | 2.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
NEC and UPDF recent form
NEC
4W 1D 1L
UPDF
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NEC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
UPDF away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: NEC at home only, UPDF away only.
NEC vs UPDF head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: NEC 3 · draws 3 · UPDF 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | NEC | 1-0 | UPDF | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-12-16 | UPDF | 0-0 | NEC | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-04-04 | UPDF | 0-0 | NEC | Premier League |
| 2024-09-24 | NEC | 1-0 | UPDF | Premier League |
| 2024-02-13 | UPDF | 2-2 | NEC | Premier League |
| 2023-10-20 | NEC | 2-0 | UPDF | Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- BUL v SC Villa — match page 2026-11-03
- Police vs Kitara — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Kataka v URA — match page 2026-11-04
- KCCA vs Maroons — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- Express vs Blacks Power 2026-11-05
- Ntugasaze v Entebbe UPPC — match page 2026-11-05
- Vipers vs Lugazi 2026-11-05
- Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City — team news & stats 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- NEC, previous: Blacks Power vs NEC prediction
- UPDF, previous: UPDF v Kitara analysis