Updated

Uganda Premier League · Matchday 10

BUL vs SC Villa

· FUFA Technical Centre

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was SC Villa to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BULDrawSC Villa

BUL vs SC Villa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBULDrawSC Villa
Model28%30%43%
Market32%36%33%
Published31%34%35%
Edge-1%-1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 1.05.
  • The market prices SC Villa below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

BUL and SC Villa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.05BUL
1.36SC Villa
Total expected goals
2.41
Attack rating (BUL / SC Villa)
1.33 / 1.72
Defence rating (BUL / SC Villa)
0.90 / 0.64

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

BUL vs SC Villa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.3% 11.0% 8.3% 3.8% 1.7% 1 8.2% 14.1% 8.7% 3.9% 1.8% 2 5.0% 6.7% 4.6% 2.1% 0.9% 3 1.7% 2.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: BUL goals. Columns: SC Villa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

BUL vs SC Villa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for BUL vs SC Villa

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2BUL31%3.27
Draw34%2.93
SC Villa35%2.83
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.32
Under 2.557%1.76
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.02
No50%1.98
Double chance1X (BUL or draw)65%1.55
12 (either side)66%1.52
X2 (draw or SC Villa)69%1.44
Handicap -1SC Villa win by 2+21%4.86
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

BUL and SC Villa recent form

BUL 4W 2D 0L
SC Villa 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

BUL at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-0
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

SC Villa away

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: BUL at home only, SC Villa away only.

BUL vs SC Villa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: BUL 6 · draws 1 · SC Villa 3.

BULDrawsSC Villa
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-08SC Villa0-0BULUganda Premier League
2026-01-23BUL2-1SC VillaUganda Premier League
2025-04-04BUL1-0SC VillaPremier League
2024-09-26SC Villa2-1BULPremier League
2024-03-15BUL0-1SC VillaPremier League
2023-10-24SC Villa1-2BULPremier League
2023-03-21SC Villa1-0BULPremier League
2022-10-21BUL1-0SC VillaPremier League
2022-05-21BUL1-0SC VillaPremier League
2021-11-23SC Villa1-2BULPremier League

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match