Ntugasaze vs Entebbe UPPC preview
In the Uganda Premier League match between Ntugasaze and Entebbe UPPC, the 1X2 probabilities show Entebbe UPPC at 65%, while Ntugasaze sits at just 9%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 20%. Entebbe UPPC's expected goals are 1.58 compared to Ntugasaze's 0.44, highlighting a significant attacking advantage for the visitors.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Ntugasaze's recent form includes 5 losses in their last 6 matches, while Entebbe UPPC has drawn in 3 of their last 5. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 33%, and both teams to score is at 29%, indicating a low likelihood of a high-scoring game or both teams finding the net.
Ntugasaze vs Entebbe UPPC: model vs market
| Source | Ntugasaze | Draw | Entebbe UPPC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11% | 27% | 62% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 11% | 27% | 62% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.49.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ntugasaze and Entebbe UPPC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.02
- Attack rating (Ntugasaze / Entebbe UPPC)
- 0.77 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Ntugasaze / Entebbe UPPC)
- 1.77 / 0.52
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ntugasaze vs Entebbe UPPC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ntugasaze goals. Columns: Entebbe UPPC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ntugasaze vs Entebbe UPPC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ntugasaze vs Entebbe UPPC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ntugasaze | 11% | 9.25 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Entebbe UPPC | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.17 |
| No | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ntugasaze or draw) | 38% | 2.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Entebbe UPPC) | 89% | 1.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Entebbe UPPC win by 2+ | 34% | 2.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Ntugasaze and Entebbe UPPC recent form
Ntugasaze
1W 1D 4L
Entebbe UPPC
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ntugasaze at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Entebbe UPPC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.20
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ntugasaze at home only, Entebbe UPPC away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- BUL v SC Villa — match page 2026-11-03
- Police vs Kitara — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- NEC vs UPDF 2026-11-03
- Kataka v URA — match page 2026-11-04
- KCCA vs Maroons — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- Express vs Blacks Power 2026-11-05
- Vipers vs Lugazi 2026-11-05
- Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City — team news & stats 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Ntugasaze, previous: Ntugasaze vs Express prediction
- Entebbe UPPC, previous: BUL v Entebbe UPPC analysis