Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Vipers preview
Kigezi HomeBoyz face Vipers with a 61% probability for an away win and a most likely scoreline of 0-1 at 20%. Kigezi HomeBoyz's recent form shows 1 win in 6 matches, while Vipers have a mixed record with 2 wins in their last 6.
The expected goals suggest Kigezi HomeBoyz will struggle to score, with only 0.49 expected goals compared to Vipers' 1.50. Despite the low chances for Over 2.5 goals at 32% and both teams to score at 31%, an unexpected performance from Kigezi HomeBoyz could alter the outcome.
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Vipers: model vs market
| Source | Kigezi HomeBoyz | Draw | Vipers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11% | 28% | 61% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 11% | 28% | 61% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.49.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kigezi HomeBoyz and Vipers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.99
- Attack rating (Kigezi HomeBoyz / Vipers)
- 0.73 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Kigezi HomeBoyz / Vipers)
- 1.33 / 0.54
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Vipers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kigezi HomeBoyz goals. Columns: Vipers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Vipers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Vipers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 11% | 9.22 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Vipers | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.23 |
| No | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kigezi HomeBoyz or draw) | 39% | 2.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Vipers) | 89% | 1.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vipers win by 2+ | 33% | 2.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kigezi HomeBoyz and Vipers recent form
Kigezi HomeBoyz
1W 0D 5L
Vipers
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kigezi HomeBoyz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
Vipers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kigezi HomeBoyz at home only, Vipers away only.
Before and after this match
- Kigezi HomeBoyz, previous: Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City prediction
- Kigezi HomeBoyz, next: Maroons vs Kigezi HomeBoyz: odds and pick
- Vipers, previous: Vipers – Lugazi, 2026-11-05