Cerro vs Cerro Largo preview
Cerro faces Cerro Largo with a 41% chance of winning compared to 25% for Cerro Largo. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 15% of the time in our model. Cerro's expected goals stand at 1.07, while Cerro Largo's is lower at 0.78.
Cerro's recent form shows 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, while Cerro Largo has not won in their last 5, with 3 draws and 2 losses. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 28%, and both teams to score sits at 37%. If Cerro Largo improves their scoring, it could challenge the predicted outcome.
Cerro vs Cerro Largo: model vs market
| Source | Cerro | Draw | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 34% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 41% | 34% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cerro and Cerro Largo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.86
- Attack rating (Cerro / Cerro Largo)
- 0.83 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Cerro / Cerro Largo)
- 1.00 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cerro vs Cerro Largo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cerro goals. Columns: Cerro Largo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cerro vs Cerro Largo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cerro vs Cerro Largo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro | 41% | 2.46 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Cerro Largo | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.70 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cerro or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| X2 (draw or Cerro Largo) | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cerro win by 2+ | 17% | 5.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cerro and Cerro Largo recent form
Cerro
2W 2D 2L
Cerro Largo
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cerro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-6
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro Largo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-8
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cerro at home only, Cerro Largo away only.
Cerro vs Cerro Largo head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Cerro 1 · draws 2 · Cerro Largo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Cerro Largo | 2-0 | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-04-10 | Cerro Largo | 1-1 | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-06-19 | Cerro | 2-1 | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-03-17 | Cerro Largo | 0-0 | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División |
Before and after this match
- Cerro, previous: Defensor Sporting vs Cerro: odds and pick
- Cerro Largo, previous: Cerro Largo vs Albion FC prediction