El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United: model vs market
| Source | El Paso Locomotive | Draw | New Mexico United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Published | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on El Paso Locomotive, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso Locomotive | 1.70 | 1.72 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.87 | 3.80 | -0.07 |
| New Mexico United | 3.98 | 4.00 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
El Paso Locomotive and New Mexico United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (El Paso Locomotive / New Mexico United)
- 1.12 / 1.13
- Defence rating (El Paso Locomotive / New Mexico United)
- 0.82 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: El Paso Locomotive goals. Columns: New Mexico United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Paso Locomotive | 52% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| New Mexico United | 23% | 4.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (El Paso Locomotive or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or New Mexico United) | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | El Paso Locomotive win by 2+ | 27% | 3.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
El Paso Locomotive and New Mexico United recent form
El Paso Locomotive
3W 1D 2L
New Mexico United
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
El Paso Locomotive at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
New Mexico United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-5
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: El Paso Locomotive at home only, New Mexico United away only.
El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: El Paso Locomotive 3 · draws 3 · New Mexico United 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | El Paso Locomotive | 0-2 | New Mexico United | USL League One Cup |
| 2026-05-07 | New Mexico United | 2-2 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| 2026-04-02 | New Mexico United | 0-4 | El Paso Locomotive | US Open Cup |
| 2026-02-28 | El Paso Locomotive | 4-1 | New Mexico United | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-05-04 | El Paso Locomotive | 3-0 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2025-04-17 | New Mexico United | 2-2 | El Paso Locomotive | US Open Cup |
| 2025-03-22 | New Mexico United | 1-0 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| 2025-03-01 | New Mexico United | 2-2 | El Paso Locomotive | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-07-28 | El Paso Locomotive | 1-2 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2024-04-07 | New Mexico United | 3-2 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
Before and after this match
- El Paso Locomotive, previous: El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic: odds and pick
- New Mexico United, previous: San Antonio v New Mexico United analysis