San Antonio vs New Mexico United preview
In the fixture between San Antonio and New Mexico United, the 1X2 probabilities show San Antonio at 42% to win, while New Mexico United is at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of San Antonio, with a 12% chance. However, the expected goals suggest a tighter match, with San Antonio at 0.83 and New Mexico United at 1.03.
San Antonio's recent form is concerning, with 5 matches yielding only 1 draw and 4 losses. New Mexico United has fared better, winning 2 of their last 5 matches. With both teams to score at 38% and Over 2.5 goals at 29%, the potential for a low-scoring game remains. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.
San Antonio vs New Mexico United: model vs market
| Source | San Antonio | Draw | New Mexico United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 35% | 38% |
| Market | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Published | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Edge | -21% | +9% | +12% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
San Antonio vs New Mexico United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on San Antonio, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | 1.95 | 1.91 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.60 | +0.24 |
| New Mexico United | 3.35 | 3.47 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
San Antonio and New Mexico United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.86
- Attack rating (San Antonio / New Mexico United)
- 0.55 / 1.29
- Defence rating (San Antonio / New Mexico United)
- 0.68 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Antonio vs New Mexico United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Antonio goals. Columns: New Mexico United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Antonio vs New Mexico United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Antonio vs New Mexico United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Antonio | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| New Mexico United | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.65 |
| No | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Antonio or draw) | 71% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or New Mexico United) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | San Antonio win by 2+ | 9% | 10.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
San Antonio and New Mexico United recent form
San Antonio
0W 4D 2L
New Mexico United
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Antonio at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-3
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 0.92
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New Mexico United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-4
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: San Antonio at home only, New Mexico United away only.
San Antonio vs New Mexico United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: San Antonio 4 · draws 1 · New Mexico United 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | New Mexico United | 1-2 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 2026-03-22 | San Antonio | 1-0 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2025-11-02 | New Mexico United | 2-0 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 2025-09-07 | San Antonio | 0-1 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2025-07-27 | San Antonio | 2-2 | New Mexico United | USL League One Cup |
| 2025-06-22 | New Mexico United | 4-2 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 2024-06-30 | San Antonio | 2-3 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2024-05-26 | New Mexico United | 2-1 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 2023-08-13 | New Mexico United | 0-3 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 2023-05-28 | San Antonio | 2-1 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Hartford Athletic v Brooklyn — match page 2026-10-17
- Louisville City vs Indy Eleven — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Miami FC vs Charleston Battery 2026-10-17
- Tampa Bay Rowdies v Detroit City — match page 2026-10-17
- Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots 2026-10-18
- El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- San Antonio, previous: Oakland Roots v San Antonio analysis
- New Mexico United, previous: New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay: odds and pick