Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising preview
In the match between Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising, the 1X2 probabilities show Phoenix Rising at 44%, while Orange County SC sits at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.59 for Orange County SC and 1.88 for Phoenix Rising.
Both teams to score has a probability of 68%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 67%. However, recent form could impact the outcome, as Orange County SC has lost 4 of their last 5 matches, while Phoenix Rising has won 2 of their last 5. This form suggests that Orange County SC may struggle against a more consistent Phoenix Rising side.
Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising: model vs market
| Source | Orange County SC | Draw | Phoenix Rising |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Market | 30% | 27% | 44% |
| Published | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Edge | +2% | -3% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Phoenix Rising, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orange County SC | 3.08 | 3.06 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.42 | +0.00 |
| Phoenix Rising | 2.05 | 2.08 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (Orange County SC / Phoenix Rising)
- 0.83 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Orange County SC / Phoenix Rising)
- 1.46 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Orange County SC goals. Columns: Phoenix Rising goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orange County SC | 30% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Phoenix Rising | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Orange County SC or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Phoenix Rising) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Phoenix Rising win by 2+ | 25% | 4.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising recent form
Orange County SC
1W 1D 4L
Phoenix Rising
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Orange County SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-6
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Phoenix Rising away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-7
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Orange County SC at home only, Phoenix Rising away only.
Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Orange County SC 2 · draws 2 · Phoenix Rising 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Phoenix Rising | 2-1 | Orange County SC | USL League One Cup |
| 2026-04-02 | Orange County SC | 1-2 | Phoenix Rising | US Open Cup |
| 2026-03-15 | Phoenix Rising | 1-1 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| 2025-07-31 | Orange County SC | 4-1 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| 2025-06-08 | Phoenix Rising | 3-1 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| 2024-09-26 | Orange County SC | 2-0 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| 2024-06-09 | Phoenix Rising | 2-1 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| 2023-10-29 | Orange County SC | 1-2 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| 2023-10-01 | Phoenix Rising | 1-1 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| 2023-05-21 | Orange County SC | 0-1 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
Other Group Stage fixtures
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- FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots 2026-10-18
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- El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Monterey Bay v Colorado Springs — match page 2026-10-18
- Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Orange County SC, previous: El Paso Locomotive v Orange County SC analysis
- Phoenix Rising, previous: Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights prediction