El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC: model vs market
| Source | El Paso Locomotive | Draw | Orange County SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Published | 63% | 20% | 16% |
| Edge | +15% | -5% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices El Paso Locomotive below the model: +15.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.56, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on El Paso Locomotive, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso Locomotive | 1.53 | 1.51 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.20 | -0.05 |
| Orange County SC | 4.80 | 4.75 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
El Paso Locomotive and Orange County SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (El Paso Locomotive / Orange County SC)
- 1.20 / 0.87
- Defence rating (El Paso Locomotive / Orange County SC)
- 0.83 / 1.46
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: El Paso Locomotive goals. Columns: Orange County SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Paso Locomotive | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.97 | |
| Orange County SC | 16% | 6.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.87 |
| No | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (El Paso Locomotive or draw) | 84% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Orange County SC) | 37% | 2.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | El Paso Locomotive win by 2+ | 54% | 1.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
El Paso Locomotive and Orange County SC recent form
El Paso Locomotive
4W 1D 1L
Orange County SC
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
El Paso Locomotive at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.58
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 14 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Orange County SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-2
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: El Paso Locomotive at home only, Orange County SC away only.
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: El Paso Locomotive 0 · draws 1 · Orange County SC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Orange County SC | 2-0 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| 2025-10-05 | Orange County SC | 0-0 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| 2025-06-15 | El Paso Locomotive | 0-3 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
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