Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights: model vs market
| Source | Phoenix Rising | Draw | Las Vegas Lights |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 25% |
| Published | 47% | 26% | 28% |
| Edge | -14% | +4% | +10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Phoenix Rising, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Rising | 1.80 | 1.80 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Las Vegas Lights | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Phoenix Rising and Las Vegas Lights expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Phoenix Rising / Las Vegas Lights)
- 0.97 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Phoenix Rising / Las Vegas Lights)
- 1.25 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Phoenix Rising goals. Columns: Las Vegas Lights goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Phoenix Rising | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Las Vegas Lights | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Phoenix Rising or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Las Vegas Lights) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Phoenix Rising win by 2+ | 17% | 5.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Phoenix Rising and Las Vegas Lights recent form
Phoenix Rising
2W 1D 3L
Las Vegas Lights
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Phoenix Rising at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-3
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Las Vegas Lights away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-7
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.54
- Goals against / match
- 1.85
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Phoenix Rising at home only, Las Vegas Lights away only.
Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Phoenix Rising 1 · draws 2 · Las Vegas Lights 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Las Vegas Lights | 1-1 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| 2025-09-06 | Phoenix Rising | 0-0 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| 2025-05-29 | Las Vegas Lights | 0-1 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
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