Miami FC vs Loudoun United: model vs market
| Source | Miami FC | Draw | Loudoun United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 29% |
| Published | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Edge | +8% | -2% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Miami FC below the model: +7.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Miami FC vs Loudoun United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Miami FC, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami FC | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Loudoun United | 3.07 | 3.10 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Miami FC and Loudoun United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (Miami FC / Loudoun United)
- 1.22 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Miami FC / Loudoun United)
- 1.11 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Miami FC vs Loudoun United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Miami FC goals. Columns: Loudoun United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Miami FC vs Loudoun United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Miami FC vs Loudoun United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Miami FC | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Loudoun United | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.53 |
| No | 34% | 2.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Miami FC or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Loudoun United) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Miami FC win by 2+ | 32% | 3.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Miami FC and Loudoun United recent form
Miami FC
4W 2D 0L
Loudoun United
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Miami FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-4
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.85
- Goals against / match
- 1.77
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
Loudoun United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Miami FC at home only, Loudoun United away only.
Miami FC vs Loudoun United head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Miami FC 1 · draws 1 · Loudoun United 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Loudoun United | 0-0 | Miami FC | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-30 | Loudoun United | 3-1 | Miami FC | USL Championship |
| 2025-05-17 | Miami FC | 2-1 | Loudoun United | USL Championship |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Sporting JAX v Birmingham Legion — match page 2026-10-10
- Charleston Battery vs Louisville City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies 2026-10-10
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds v Hartford Athletic — match page 2026-10-10
- Detroit City vs Rhode Island 2026-10-10
- El Paso Locomotive v Orange County SC — match page 2026-10-11
- New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights 2026-10-11