Charleston Battery vs Louisville City: model vs market
| Source | Charleston Battery | Draw | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Published | 51% | 24% | 24% |
| Edge | +22% | -7% | -15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Charleston Battery below the model: +21.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Charleston Battery, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston Battery | 1.91 | 1.99 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.49 | -0.11 |
| Louisville City | 3.42 | 3.25 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Charleston Battery and Louisville City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (Charleston Battery / Louisville City)
- 1.45 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Charleston Battery / Louisville City)
- 0.78 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Charleston Battery goals. Columns: Louisville City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Charleston Battery vs Louisville City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charleston Battery | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Louisville City | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Charleston Battery or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Louisville City) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Charleston Battery win by 2+ | 46% | 2.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Charleston Battery and Louisville City recent form
Charleston Battery
4W 1D 1L
Louisville City
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Charleston Battery at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-1
- Win rate
- 77%
- Goals for / match
- 2.77
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Louisville City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.92
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Charleston Battery at home only, Louisville City away only.
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Charleston Battery 1 · draws 0 · Louisville City 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Louisville City | 0-2 | Charleston Battery | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-10 | Louisville City | 4-1 | Charleston Battery | USL Championship |
| 2025-03-09 | Charleston Battery | 1-2 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Sporting JAX v Birmingham Legion — match page 2026-10-10
- Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies 2026-10-10
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds v Hartford Athletic — match page 2026-10-10
- Miami FC vs Loudoun United — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Detroit City vs Rhode Island 2026-10-10
- El Paso Locomotive v Orange County SC — match page 2026-10-11
- New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights 2026-10-11