Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion: model vs market
| Source | Sporting JAX | Draw | Birmingham Legion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 19% | 58% |
| Market | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| Published | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.77 vs 1.82.
- The market prices Birmingham Legion below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Birmingham Legion, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting JAX | 3.25 | 3.40 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.75 | -0.05 |
| Birmingham Legion | 1.91 | 1.85 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sporting JAX and Birmingham Legion expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.59
- Attack rating (Sporting JAX / Birmingham Legion)
- 0.88 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Sporting JAX / Birmingham Legion)
- 1.93 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sporting JAX goals. Columns: Birmingham Legion goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting JAX | 26% | 3.85 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Birmingham Legion | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84% | 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 16% | 6.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.27 |
| No | 21% | 4.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sporting JAX or draw) | 49% | 2.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Birmingham Legion) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham Legion win by 2+ | 39% | 2.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sporting JAX and Birmingham Legion recent form
Sporting JAX
1W 0D 5L
Birmingham Legion
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sporting JAX at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-8
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.54
- Goals against / match
- 2.92
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 3 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birmingham Legion away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-7
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.08
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 12
- They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting JAX at home only, Birmingham Legion away only.
Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Sporting JAX 1 · draws 0 · Birmingham Legion 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Birmingham Legion | 2-3 | Sporting JAX | USL Championship |
Before and after this match
- Sporting JAX, next: Sporting JAX – Louisville City, 2026-10-21
- Birmingham Legion, next: Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United: odds and pick