Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United preview
In the upcoming match between Birmingham Legion and Loudoun United, the 1X2 probabilities show Birmingham Legion at 42% and Loudoun United at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Birmingham Legion's expected goals stand at 1.81, while Loudoun United's is at 1.61.
Both teams to score has a probability of 68%, and there's a 66% chance of Over 2.5 goals. However, Birmingham Legion's recent form shows mixed results with W-L-W-L-D-D, while Loudoun United has struggled with W-D-W-L-L-L. This inconsistency could impact the match outcome.
Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United: model vs market
| Source | Birmingham Legion | Draw | Loudoun United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Market | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Published | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +3% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Birmingham Legion, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Legion | 2.03 | 1.95 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.60 | -0.12 |
| Loudoun United | 2.85 | 3.13 | +0.29 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Birmingham Legion and Loudoun United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Birmingham Legion / Loudoun United)
- 1.18 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Birmingham Legion / Loudoun United)
- 1.26 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Birmingham Legion goals. Columns: Loudoun United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham Legion | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Loudoun United | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Birmingham Legion or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Loudoun United) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham Legion win by 2+ | 23% | 4.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Birmingham Legion and Loudoun United recent form
Birmingham Legion
2W 2D 2L
Loudoun United
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Birmingham Legion at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-7-4
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Loudoun United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-7
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 5 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Birmingham Legion at home only, Loudoun United away only.
Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Birmingham Legion 5 · draws 2 · Loudoun United 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Birmingham Legion | 1-1 | Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| 2026-04-04 | Loudoun United | 2-2 | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
| 2025-10-04 | Loudoun United | 0-1 | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
| 2025-03-09 | Birmingham Legion | 1-3 | Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| 2024-09-14 | Loudoun United | 4-2 | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
| 2024-04-07 | Birmingham Legion | 3-1 | Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| 2023-06-22 | Birmingham Legion | 2-0 | Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| 2023-04-15 | Loudoun United | 3-0 | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
| 2022-07-28 | Birmingham Legion | 6-1 | Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| 2022-04-24 | Loudoun United | 1-2 | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
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Before and after this match
- Birmingham Legion, previous: Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion prediction
- Birmingham Legion, next: Brooklyn v Birmingham Legion analysis
- Loudoun United, previous: Rhode Island vs Loudoun United: odds and pick