Rhode Island vs Loudoun United preview
Rhode Island faces Loudoun United with a 53% chance of winning, while the draw sits at 27% and Loudoun United at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, predicted at 11%. Both teams to score is at 51%, indicating a close match where either side could find the net.
Rhode Island has shown mixed recent form with a record of W-W-L-L-W-D, while Loudoun United has struggled, recording D-W-L-L-L-L. The expected goals are 1.67 for Rhode Island and 0.96 for Loudoun United. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome, which could affect the predictions for Over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Rhode Island vs Loudoun United: model vs market
| Source | Rhode Island | Draw | Loudoun United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Rhode Island and Loudoun United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Rhode Island / Loudoun United)
- 0.99 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Rhode Island / Loudoun United)
- 0.79 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rhode Island vs Loudoun United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rhode Island goals. Columns: Loudoun United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rhode Island vs Loudoun United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rhode Island vs Loudoun United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rhode Island | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Loudoun United | 20% | 4.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rhode Island or draw) | 80% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Loudoun United) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rhode Island win by 2+ | 30% | 3.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Rhode Island and Loudoun United recent form
Rhode Island
3W 1D 2L
Loudoun United
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rhode Island at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-2
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 0.85
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Loudoun United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rhode Island at home only, Loudoun United away only.
Rhode Island vs Loudoun United head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Rhode Island 1 · draws 1 · Loudoun United 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Loudoun United | 1-4 | Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-09 | Rhode Island | 0-0 | Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| 2025-03-29 | Loudoun United | 2-0 | Rhode Island | USL Championship |
Other Group Stage fixtures
Before and after this match
- Rhode Island, previous: Detroit City – Rhode Island, 2026-10-10
- Loudoun United, previous: Miami FC vs Loudoun United prediction