Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds preview
In the USL Championship match between Rhode Island and Pittsburgh Riverhounds, the 1X2 probabilities show Rhode Island at 39%, a draw at 36%, and Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 25%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, which occurs 16% of the time.
Rhode Island has expected goals of 0.99, while Pittsburgh Riverhounds sit at 0.74. Both teams to score stands at 34%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 25%. Recent form shows Rhode Island with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Pittsburgh Riverhounds have 3 wins in their last 6. These factors could affect the outcome, particularly if either team improves their scoring efficiency.
Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds: model vs market
| Source | Rhode Island | Draw | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 37% | 23% |
| Market | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Published | 49% | 31% | 20% |
| Edge | -11% | +8% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.98 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rhode Island, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island | 1.75 | 1.77 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.12 | -0.18 |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 4.30 | 4.61 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rhode Island and Pittsburgh Riverhounds expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.64
- Attack rating (Rhode Island / Pittsburgh Riverhounds)
- 0.89 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Rhode Island / Pittsburgh Riverhounds)
- 0.71 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rhode Island goals. Columns: Pittsburgh Riverhounds goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rhode Island | 49% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 20% | 4.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23% | 4.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.18 |
| No | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rhode Island or draw) | 80% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Pittsburgh Riverhounds) | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rhode Island win by 2+ | 16% | 6.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Rhode Island and Pittsburgh Riverhounds recent form
Rhode Island
3W 0D 3L
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rhode Island at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 0.79
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-7
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.21
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rhode Island at home only, Pittsburgh Riverhounds away only.
Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Rhode Island 2 · draws 1 · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0-1 | Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| 2025-11-15 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1-0 | Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-02 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 2-0 | Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| 2025-05-31 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0-1 | Rhode Island | USL League One Cup |
| 2025-05-24 | Rhode Island | 0-1 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
| 2024-09-07 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 2-0 | Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| 2024-04-13 | Rhode Island | 0-0 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
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Before and after this match
- Rhode Island, previous: Rhode Island vs Loudoun United: odds and pick
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds, previous: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Hartford Athletic: odds and pick