El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic preview
In the match between El Paso Locomotive and Sacramento Republic, the 1X2 probabilities show El Paso Locomotive at 46%, while Sacramento Republic is at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with El Paso's expected goals of 1.48 compared to Sacramento's 1.05.
However, there is a 51% chance that both teams will score, which could lead to a different outcome. El Paso's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while Sacramento has also shown resilience with 4 wins in their last 6. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.
El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic: model vs market
| Source | El Paso Locomotive | Draw | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 29% | 26% |
| Market | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Published | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Edge | +11% | +1% | -12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices El Paso Locomotive below the model: +10.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic odds movement
Median bookmaker price on El Paso Locomotive, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso Locomotive | 2.72 | 2.58 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.28 | -0.02 |
| Sacramento Republic | 2.30 | 2.42 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
El Paso Locomotive and Sacramento Republic expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (El Paso Locomotive / Sacramento Republic)
- 1.25 / 1.08
- Defence rating (El Paso Locomotive / Sacramento Republic)
- 0.83 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: El Paso Locomotive goals. Columns: Sacramento Republic goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Paso Locomotive | 38% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Sacramento Republic | 34% | 2.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| No | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (El Paso Locomotive or draw) | 66% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Sacramento Republic) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | El Paso Locomotive win by 2+ | 23% | 4.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
El Paso Locomotive and Sacramento Republic recent form
El Paso Locomotive
4W 1D 1L
Sacramento Republic
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
El Paso Locomotive at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-3
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.54
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 15 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Sacramento Republic away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-8-3
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: El Paso Locomotive at home only, Sacramento Republic away only.
El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: El Paso Locomotive 5 · draws 0 · Sacramento Republic 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Sacramento Republic | 1-2 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-24 | El Paso Locomotive | 1-0 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2025-07-13 | Sacramento Republic | 3-0 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| 2024-10-20 | El Paso Locomotive | 2-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2024-08-15 | Sacramento Republic | 2-0 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| 2023-09-17 | Sacramento Republic | 1-0 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| 2023-03-12 | El Paso Locomotive | 0-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2022-05-19 | El Paso Locomotive | 1-0 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2022-03-13 | Sacramento Republic | 3-1 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| 2021-09-12 | El Paso Locomotive | 2-0 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Hartford Athletic v Brooklyn — match page 2026-10-17
- Tampa Bay Rowdies v Detroit City — match page 2026-10-17
- Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots 2026-10-18
- San Antonio v New Mexico United — match page 2026-10-18
- Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising 2026-10-18
- Monterey Bay v Colorado Springs — match page 2026-10-18
- Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- El Paso Locomotive, previous: El Paso Locomotive v Orange County SC analysis
- Sacramento Republic, previous: Sacramento Republic – Colorado Springs, 2026-10-11