Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington preview
In the fixture between Las Vegas Lights and Lexington, the 1X2 probabilities show Lexington at 49%, while Las Vegas Lights sit at 25%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which has a 10% chance of occurring.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Las Vegas Lights recording L-W-L-D-W-L and Lexington at D-W-W-W-W-L. The expected goals are 1.18 for Las Vegas Lights and 1.71 for Lexington, indicating a potential for Over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. However, the recent head-to-head record, with Las Vegas Lights winning 2 of the last 4 encounters, could challenge Lexington's stronger probability.
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington: model vs market
| Source | Las Vegas Lights | Draw | Lexington |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Published | 29% | 26% | 46% |
| Edge | -5% | +1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lexington below the model: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lexington, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Lights | 3.02 | 3.02 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.58 | +0.00 |
| Lexington | 2.02 | 2.03 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Las Vegas Lights and Lexington expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Las Vegas Lights / Lexington)
- 0.94 / 1.43
- Defence rating (Las Vegas Lights / Lexington)
- 1.02 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Las Vegas Lights goals. Columns: Lexington goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Las Vegas Lights | 29% | 3.47 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Lexington | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Las Vegas Lights or draw) | 54% | 1.84 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Lexington) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lexington win by 2+ | 27% | 3.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Las Vegas Lights and Lexington recent form
Las Vegas Lights
2W 1D 3L
Lexington
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Las Vegas Lights at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-4
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lexington away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-6
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.46
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Las Vegas Lights at home only, Lexington away only.
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Las Vegas Lights 2 · draws 1 · Lexington 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Lexington | 2-0 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| 2026-05-03 | Las Vegas Lights | 2-1 | Lexington | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-31 | Las Vegas Lights | 1-0 | Lexington | USL Championship |
| 2025-04-12 | Lexington | 0-0 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Hartford Athletic v Brooklyn — match page 2026-10-17
- Tampa Bay Rowdies v Detroit City — match page 2026-10-17
- Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots 2026-10-18
- San Antonio v New Mexico United — match page 2026-10-18
- El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising 2026-10-18
- Monterey Bay v Colorado Springs — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Las Vegas Lights, previous: Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights prediction
- Lexington, previous: Lexington vs FC Tulsa: odds and pick